Central Texas Flooding: Devastating Flash Floods Overwhelm Kerr County
More than 100 are dead and scores missing after the Guadalupe River surged, prompting questions about preparedness and response.
Central Texas was devastated by unprecedented flooding over the Fourth of July weekend, after the Guadalupe River rose more than 27 feet within 45 minutes following 5 to 11 inches of rainfall.
“We will not stop until every missing person is accounted for,” Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said during a press conference.
As of now, more than 120 people have been killed—surpassing the death toll from Hurricane Harvey—while more than 180 remain missing. The disaster has become one of the deadliest natural catastrophes in Texas history, as officials face backlash over the lack of warning systems.
The Human Toll and Search for Survivors
More than 94 deaths occurred in Kerr County, with eight in Kendall County, seven in Travis County, five in Burnet County, three in Williamson County, and one in Tom Green County. The death toll is expected to rise as search efforts continue.
“We will do everything humanly possible 24/7, looking in every tree and turning over every rock, to find your daughter or son,” said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
“The 500 people in the field are looking for your daughter.”
Camp Mystic, an all-girls summer camp along the Guadalupe River, lost 27 campers and counselors in the floods, with many still missing.
“Our hearts are broken alongside our families that are enduring this unimaginable tragedy,” the camp said on its website.
“We are praying for them constantly.”
Gov. Abbott confirmed that massive rescue efforts were underway, with Camp Mystic as a priority.
“We will remain 100 percent dedicated, searching for every single one of the children who were at Camp Mystic, as well as anybody else, and the entire riverbed to make sure that they’re going to be recovered,” Abbott said.
In a report from The Guardian, many former campers shared their experiences at the camp, calling it a place of “joy and innocence.”
“It tugs at the heart of anyone in the world that sees the pictures of those little faces,” said Claudia Sullivan, author of Heartfelt: A Memoir of Camp Mystic Inspirations.
“To know that they were there, having the time of their life, that they were innocent, and then to be taken away in such a tragic event — it takes you to your knees.”
Among the confirmed victims was Chloe Childress, a Camp Mystic counselor who died in the flooding. She had planned to attend the University of Texas at Austin to major in health promotion and behavioral science.
“Our family was shocked to hear of the horrific, tragic flooding in the Hill Country, and we were devastated to learn that our precious Chloe was among the victims,” her family said in a statement.
“While we know that her joy is now eternal and her faith has become sight, our hearts are shattered by this loss and the similar heartbreak of other families like ours.”
Eight-year-old twins Hanna and Rebecca Lawrence were also among the fatalities at Camp Mystic, leaving behind an older sister, Harper, along with their parents.
“Hanna and Rebecca brought so much joy to us, to their big sister Harper, and to so many others,” said John and Lacy Lawrence in a statement.
“We will find ways to keep that joy, and to continue to spread it for them.”
Julian Ryan, a resident of Ingram, Texas, died after helping his family escape their trailer home. He suffered heavy bleeding after breaking a window and cutting his arm, losing consciousness before help arrived.
“I love you. I'm so sorry,” were his last words after realizing he wasn’t going to survive, his sister Connie Salas told ABC News.
“He didn't die in vain — he died a hero.”
Infrastructure Failures and Climate Change
Officials in Texas faced backlash after it was revealed that Kerr County did not have a flood warning system, raising serious concerns as Central Texas—especially the Hill Country region—is prone to flooding.
“We were trying to think of, what can we do to make sure that never happens here?” former Kerr County Sheriff Rusty Hierholzer, who advocated for a flood warning system for years, told The Wall Street Journal.
“And that’s why we were looking at everything that we could come up with—whether it be sirens, whether it be any other systems that we could.”
In a report by CBS News, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick suggested that the state could fund the system.
“If they can't afford to do it, then let us do it,” he said.
“We have a special session starting two weeks from today, and I think we can take that up and do some other things—funding these sirens... If there had been a siren, maybe that would have sparked people to say, ‘Oh, we have a massive disaster like, five minutes away.’”
Gov. Abbott directed Texas lawmakers to return to Austin—the state capital—for a special legislative session on July 21, with the flooding as the central topic.
“It’s going to be good to have a session for all members working together with different perspectives. Because the reality is this: what is needed in that river basin, in that location, can be far different across the state,” Abbott said.
Dustin Burrows, speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, claimed that lawmakers are “ready” to address the tragedy.
“I want to assure you, the Texas House will be organized, we will be ready, and we stand willing and able to listen to your community and experts and do all that we can to help address it from this perspective,” he said in a report by FOX Austin.
Local officials later claimed that weather forecasts from meteorologists were not accurate, stating that rainfall totals exceeded what was predicted. However, climate scientists have defended the National Weather Service (NWS).
“There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic Texas floods—but that’s simply not true,” said Daniel Swain in a BlueSky post.
“This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hours prior.”
However, previous reports from The Introspective have detailed cuts to the NWS, including storm and disaster alerts being halted for non-English speakers and budget reductions to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), impacting research related to climate, weather, and oceanic programs.
“When you cut the research, you cut the ability to improve the forecasts and the predictions,” former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in the report.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt defended accusations that ongoing federal downsizing impacted the death toll in Texas.
“That was an act of God. It’s not the administration’s fault that the flood hit when it did, but there were early and consistent warnings and, again, the National Weather Service did its job,” Leavitt said.
Gov. Abbott also responded to the backlash, referring to those assigning blame as using “the word choice of losers.”
“Every square inch of our state cares about football,” Abbott said, using a football metaphor.
“Every football team makes mistakes.”
Further backlash followed after records revealed that the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) approved Camp Mystic’s emergency plans just days before the flooding.
In an ABC News report, DSHS spokesperson Lara Anton stated that camps are required to develop their own emergency plans in adherence to state law.
“Camps are responsible for developing their own emergency plan,” she said, adding that the inspection showed the camp was complying with regulations.
“The plans should include disaster, serious accident, epidemic, or fatality. Disaster would include flooding, tornado, etc. The inspector checked that they had plans posted for those elements in every building and that they had trained staff and volunteers on what to do.”
In an NBC News report, scientist David Gagne called the flood conditions a “worst-case scenario.”
“All the ingredients came together at the wrong place, at the wrong time, at night, on a holiday weekend,” he said.
“This was at the top end of the scale.”
Studies from NOAA have found that climate change is making flooding worse, with the heaviest rainstorms in Texas now releasing 20% more water than they did in the 1950s, when the Earth was cooler. A 2024 report from Texas A&M University also found that extreme rain in the state is expected to become more frequent over the next decade as weather patterns continue to shift.
Looking Forward
Damage from the flooding is estimated to be in the billions, with reports placing the total between $18 billion and $22 billion. The event continues a growing trend in billion-dollar weather disasters since AccuWeather began issuing estimates after Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
“We estimate that flash flooding, tornadoes, wildfires and other extreme weather events in America have caused a combined total damage and economic loss of $371 billion to $415 billion so far this year,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter in the report.
Humanitarian organizations such as Direct Relief have deployed staff to Central Texas, pledging $50,000 in funding and $90 million in medications and supplies to support search and rescue groups.
“In the aftermath of a flooding or tropical storm event, the most urgent health needs often center on a combination of implementing prevention measures and re-establishing continuity of care,” Direct Relief said in a statement.
Firefighters and first responders from Mexico have also arrived in Texas to assist in the rescue efforts, underscoring the gravity of the disaster.
“When it comes to firefighters, there’s no borders,” Ismael Aldaba, founder of Fundación 911, told CNN.
“There’s nothing that’ll avoid us from helping another firefighter, another family. It doesn’t matter where we’re at in the world. That’s the whole point of our discipline and what we do.”